Allies and Hawks; Friend and Foe

Before we get too far a disclaimer to keep in mind:

“Several current and former officials, as well as outside experts, spoke on the condition of anonymity because the intelligence surrounding the Israeli strike remains highly classified.”

The “intelligence” is “highly classified,” so how do they know anything and are they worth quoting or basing an article on? Now on the chosen colors representing the bad and the good.

According to The NY Times:

“A sharp debate is under way in the Bush administration about the significance of the Israeli intelligence that led to last month’s Israeli strike inside Syria, according to current and former American government officials.”

This debate revolves around intelligence provided by Israel, which led that nation to its decision to bomb a location in Syria believed to be the location of Bashar al-Assad’s nascent nuclear program; spermatozoon in the test tube courtesy of stature lacking Kim of Korea.

One thing worth noting is that the toilet paper has in the past written of debates within the administration, rarely described as “debates” but more colorfully described as “rifts” between “hawks” and doves regarding Iran. We might be comforted with the fact that the administration does debate issues, but that would require injecting connotation that weakens the “hawk/dove” angle; this is just something the msm doesn’t do.

As the toilet paper rarely passes an opportunity to report as factually as it can stand while implying with words of choice who is on the rights side and wrong side of the “debate.”

The two sides in the “fight” are “Vice President Dick Cheney and conservative hawks” and “Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and her allies.” Remember WWII, a war fought between the “Axis” and “Allies.” Any questions as to which side the toilet paper is more supportive of? Reporting the news with an eye toward swaying opinion; this is not reporting the news, but the toilet paper does it seven days a week.

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In Rebuttal to Barack Obama’s Essay – “Renewing American Leadership” – Part II

Revitalizing the Military

“To renew American leadership in the world, we must immediately begin working to revitalize our military. A strong military is, more than anything, necessary to sustain peace.”

Candidate Obama suggests that:

“We must recruit the very best and invest in their capacity to succeed. That means providing our servicemen and servicewomen with first-rate equipment, armor, incentives, and training -- including in foreign languages and other critical skills. Each major defense program should be reevaluated in light of current needs, gaps in the field, and likely future threat scenarios. Our military will have to rebuild some capabilities and transform others.”

This is much like Obama’s and any candidates picture perfect scenario. Most if not all of the dreams require cooperation from all sides; with self-absorbed bureaucracies this is indeed a challenge, forget about foreign cooperation. But again, this is all failing due to the intransigence of Bush. The Bush administration suffers and suffered from the great push back from the military as well as a lack of cooperation from individuals in the State Department and elsewhere that were and are used to doing business a certain way. Senator Obama should not expect more open arms, excepting of course that he is not Bush…anybody but Bush.

Halting the spread of Nuclear Weapons

“In confronting these threats, I will not take the military option off the table. But our first measure must be sustained, direct, and aggressive diplomacy -- the kind that the Bush administration has been unable and unwilling to use.”

What is aggressive diplomacy? Sounds decisive, active or action oriented, it certainly doesn’t imply sitting on ones hands. Is the tactic that has been used with regard to Iran, i.e. EU-3, UN, IAEA, what is inferred? Could it be considered “aggressive” to continually return to the same negotiating table over and over; is this forcefully aggressive? Why should Obama or any of the other candidates get a pass, when they bravely proclaim the “military option” will not be taken off the table? Is it only different based upon the reaction or overreaction of the opposition party or media that makes it “war-mongering” and troublesome?

In halting the spread of nuclear weapons, one of the reasons for going into Iraq, is it really wise to use the military? Might that not enflame international sensitivities? “Blood for radiation,” is this really what we want to put our youngest and brightest up against?

The senator writes of rogue regimes developing nuclear know-how (in one instance under the auspices of “peaceful nuclear energy.”) and terrorist groups like al Qaeda that would love to get their hands on the materials or purchase an existing nuclear weapon.

Our present set up is not enough, according to George Shultz, William Perry, Henry Kissinger and Sam Nunn; which I do not doubt, but shouldn’t we check with others on this as well? Perhaps in a more bi-partisan fashion?

It is no lie that poorly secured stockpiles of uranium and “approximately 15,000-16,000 nuclear weapons,” in the former Soviet Union exist, but as Obama declares he will immediately begin providing “$50 million to jump-start the creation of an International Atomic Energy Agency-controlled nuclear fuel bank and work to update the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty” be the answer? Isn’t this just looking for more bureaucratic red tape and international bickering going to remain? Is it really wise for a leader offering “aggressive diplomacy,” to invest in the same IAEA that has failed thus far to curtail Iran’s “peaceful nukes.” We’ve done four years of this to date; isn’t it really time for something else? Perhaps not, as 14 plus years was still not enough with regard to Saddam’s Iraq.

Where will these “strong international coalitions to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and eliminate North Korea’s nuclear weapons program,” come from? Our we talking about the same group of nations that are presently on our planet? “Iran and North Korea could trigger regional arms races,” really, hasn’t that already begun in the Middle East with the forward momentum of Iran’s advances prodding them along?

Active cooperation from Russia is a necessity even though we don’t see eye to eye on everything and we “must not shy away from pushing for more democracy and accountability” from them, but the common interest of nuclear weapons and material is something we should strive for. Good idea.

In the interest of thinking it through, where will we put all these stockpiles of “nuclear material,” Yucca Mountain?

End of Part II

"In Rebuttal to Barack Obama’s Essay – “Renewing American Leadership” – Part I"

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Kim Gets the Dough

North Korea has finally received the $25 million frozen in Macao’s Banco Delta Asia that it “demanded” prior to its following through on the February 13^th agreement to dismantle the Yongbyon nuclear plant.

There should still remain concerns as it is unlikely North Korea will discontinue its illegal activities, such as counterfeiting money and cigarettes, drug traffic and illegal weapons sales, as it has proved so lucrative. It will likely (hopefully) continue to have banking difficulties based upon the U.S. Treasury working group Illicit Activities Initiative, which tracked the North’s illegal activities. It was this investigation that led to the U.S. Treasury finding Macao’s Banco Delta Asia a “primary money laundering concern.” No international banking member wants to be labeled as such, so Kim will have a tough time of things.

The U.N.s IAEA will now meet with North Korea to discuss “a timetable for shutting down the reactor and technical details of monitoring and verification.” The IAEA and the North “have bickered over how much access the agency should have to nuclear facilities and data in the isolated country” ever since the revelation of the North’s illicit nuclear weapons program. So, they will negotiate to discuss, talk, and agree about discussing, talking and agreeing so to speak…make sense? That’s U.N. diplo-speak at its finest.

Further “North Korea said it would use the released money ‘“for improving the standard of people’s living and humanitarian purposes,”’ as the United States demanded.” Uhn huhn…ok.

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North Korea Expecting Normal Access to International Banking System

Initially reported as accepting the request:

“Russia has accepted a U.S. request that a Russian bank help end a stalemate over frozen North Korean funds that has halted progress in the North's nuclear disarmament.”

Now is has been agreed upon:

“Russia has agreed to help the United States break the impasse over a long-running banking dispute.”

North Korea agreed during six party talks on February 13^th to dismantle its nuclear programs, in part understanding they would receive $25 million in frozen money. North Korea missed its April 14^th deadline for the first step, which was shutting down its Yongbyon nuclear reactor citing claims it has not received the money. Setting aside the pathetic nature of agreeing to release the funds; North Korea had the means to get the money, but refused to unless the money was transferred; as noted by someone’s Yahoo:

“The communist state insists on a transfer rather than a withdrawal to prove it has regained access to the international banking system.”

All previous reporting of this subject and excepting the paltry sum of it indicated North Korean claims of not closing down the Yongbyon reactor due to its not receiving the $25 million. Now the North’s claim is that they wanted a transfer, which to them is seen as a regaining of access to the international banking system.

Let’s see if it plays out like the following:

• Russia’s private bank agrees to the transaction as long it is not nailed with the penalties of doing business with North Korea.

• North Korea receives its $25 million.

• North Korea does not meet its obligation to close down Yongbyon because it does not have regular access to the international banking system.

Looks like we'll be back to the drawing board.

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Of UN Resolutions, Russian Decrees and No Rice for You - North Korea

Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a decree against North Korea that is inline with the U.N. resolution 1718, which recalled previous relevant resolutions 825 from 1993; 1540 from 2004 and 1695 from 2006 banning:

“trading with North Korea in materials, goods and technology which could contribute to North Korea's development of weapons of mass destruction-related programs such as those of missiles and nuclear weapons.”

“It also prohibits exports of luxury goods to North Korea and those to the North from third countries by way of Russia or Russian business corporations.”

U.N. resolution 1718 reaffirmed, expressed the gravest concern, expressed profound concern, expressed a firm conviction, deplored, deplored further, condemned, demanded and decided. Perhaps this is why Putin took as long as he did in issuing his presidential decree.

According to first deputy head of the State Duma Leonid Slutsky:

‘”Pyongyang isolated itself from the world community and tries to develop its nuclear program on its own."’

In related news:

“U.S. President George W. Bush admitted during his talks in April with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe that the U.S. government failed to fully read North Korean actions over the recent banking impasse.”

The “recent banking impasse” the agreement with North Korea:

“which has many parts, working groups, and rewards for Pyongyang, all spun out of the Six-Party talks in Beijing, and described by Hill, State’s envoy to the talks, as “an excellent plan.” This Saturday (4/15/07) marks the deadline for the initial 60-day phase in which Kim was supposed to have spent the time shutting down his Yongbyon reactor, providing a map of his entire nuclear program and opening wide for inspections.”

Concerns at the time were that North Korea would miss the deadline referred to above; which surprisingly North Korea missed….hmmmm.

Kim and the Gang are all worked up today with the accusation that South Korea has failed to honor “a promise to ship it more rice aid.” The South for its part will only provide the rice as promised, once the North actually gets around to honoring its pledge to start nuclear disarmament.

DeMediacratic Nation agrees with the South Korean stand on the rice shipment and expresses the gravest concern, profound concern, a firm conviction, deplores, deplores further, and last, but not least condemns North Korea for its actions or inactions.

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North Korea No Show on first Deadline

Odd that. North Korea is late or has missed its first deadline in the newest deal to with the U.S. and its multi-lateral negotiating party. According to The NY Times:

“The first deadline for North Korea to shut down and seal its main facility for manufacturing nuclear weapons fuel expired Saturday with no apparent action by the North to fulfill its commitments.”

China has asked the U.S. for patience. Ok, not like we have any other choice right? The Times get a dig in, with (italics mine):

“The inaction leaves President Bush vulnerable to attacks from hawks in his own party, who have argued that it was a mistake to return $25 million in frozen funds to the North Koreans — much of it believed to be from illicit sales of counterfeit currency and missiles — and who doubt that the North Koreans will stop producing bomb fuel as well as give up all of its existing weapons.”

Damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t. But that said, allowing the release of the Kim Jong-il obsessed over, $25 million in frozen accounts strikes me as incredibly stupid. According to Claudia Rosett these funds were part of the estimated $500 million to $1 billion earned per year:

“via illicit deals in narcotics, counterfeit cigarettes, counterfeit U.S. currency and other scams, as well as weapons deals. Some of the players and money trails overlapped and intertwined with targets of two major inter-agency sting operations carried out in the U.S. in 2005, dubbed “Royal Charm” and “Smoking Dragon,” aimed at cleaning up alleged North-Korean-related criminal networks with tentacles reaching into the U.S.”

Former Ambassador to the U.N., John Bolton prior to and in anticipation of a missed deadline said:

“One sign of whether we are in trouble is whether the administration will call this a ‘violation’ or use words like “noncompliance.”

Now would one call that prescience or war mongering? How about the common sense of previous actions or statements are a good indicator of future action? Good thing this Bolton guy didn’t bother going through the difficulties inherent in a partisan up or down vote to return to the U.N.; we wouldn’t want anyone like that there would we?

Even South Korea is “threatening” the stopping food aid that had been promised to N.K. to take the steps necessary in shutting down its reactor and nuclear advancement activities. Those mean South Koreans, of all the blustering and “threatening” that has the potential of derailing “business as usual.” Let’s not throw any monkey wrenches into the works that may confuse the great Kim il.

According to a TIME Magazine “piece,” Robert Einhorn who worked for almost 30 years with the State Department on North Korean nukes said:

"The North Koreans don't seem to realize that it is not in their interest to keep undermining and embarrassing those in the Bush Administration who want to find a negotiated solution. In for a penny, in for a pound. The Administration has no choice at this stage but to be patient a few days longer and see if the North Koreans will comply."

No they don’t seem to realize it or perhaps they do, but common sense does point toward waiting a few days to see what happens. Einhorn adds, predicting:

"The Chinese will now be more inclined to come down hard on the North Koreans for further foot-dragging."

Will the Chinese actually come down hard on N.K. or will it just be more diplomatic appearances….I see appearances in the future, if only because “diplomacy” is business as usual.

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Stoking the Flames of Peace

Debacle; Iraq is a debacle of epic proportions, doesn’t anyone have a better idea? Hasn’t the Right learned any lessons from Vietnam? Iran, and its democratically elected government; aren’t we about ready to talk yet? Engagement?...yes but to who or whom?

Martin Luther King, Jr. had a dream and so, recently has Victor Davis Hanson:

“I recently had a dream that British marines fought back, like their forefathers of old, against criminals and pirates. When taken captive, they proved defiant in their silence. When released, they talked to the tabloids with restraint and dignity, and accepted no recompense.

I dreamed that a kindred German government, which best knew the wages of appeasement, cut-off all trade credits to the outlaw Iranian mullahs — even as the European Union joined the Americans in refusing commerce with this Holocaust-denying, anti-Semitic, and thuggish regime.

NATO countries would then warn Iran that their next unprovoked attack on a vessel of a member nation would incite the entire alliance against them in a response that truly would be of a “disproportionate” nature.”

Glad he can sleep….

Oop….forgot about North Korea; President Bush should have taken the call for a “uni-lateral” solution; not sure why since “uni-lateral” isn’t proving to do too well in the Iraq debacle. Multi-laterally speaking the six party talks are finally coming to a point of finality that bespeaks the wisdom of the pragmatism of the status quo. It would appear there has been break through after break through as of late if only according to the Assistant Secretary, Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs. Who has been busy at work on, as described by Claudia Rosett a:

“North Korean deal, which has many parts, working groups, and rewards for Pyongyang, all spun out of the Six-Party talks in Beijing, and described by Hill, State’s envoy to the talks, as “an excellent plan.” This Saturday marks the deadline for the initial 60-day phase in which Kim was supposed to have spent the time shutting down his Yongbyon reactor, providing a map of his entire nuclear program and opening wide for inspections. As of today none of this has happened. Most eyes are now on the reactor, and the debate is now shifting to whether Kim will miss the deadline.”

We can be thankful that the blowhard, acid-tongued John Bolton is no longer our rep at the U.N., had he been speech like, “In any arms-control negotiation, the need for verification is directly correlated to the propensity of the other side to lie, cheat and conceal its undesirable activities,” would likely have had dire consequences that may have stoked the flames of peace. This again speaks deafeningly to the pragmatic approach to diplomacy.

As David Byrne once sang, “you may ask yourself-well...how did I get here?” This you would find yourself better asking a shrink, just don’t wear leather pants on that sofa.

Signed, A Chicken-Hawk

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