Iranian Peaceful Nukes – Almost there on Agreement

"We do not take these statements seriously. Comments to the media are different from real statements" – Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in response to recent statements from France

According to the Director of the IAEA, Mohamed “Neville Chamberlain” El Baradei:

“there is no reason to go beyond diplomacy in dealing with Iran's nuclear program.

The international community needs to keep the process of dialogue open in order to restrict the idea of using force against Iran, he said.

Underlining the need for clarifying and moving forward within the framework of a timetable agreed upon by IAEA and Iran, he said other nations should understand that the issue has been tied with the security of the region, therefore, they are expected to be more patient.

Taking a page from Ahmadinejad, we should add; we do not take these statements seriously, comments by diplomats never speak beyond the process of negotiation.”

The “secular pope” is seeing to it that the entire region/world sits back while he takes care of us all. A diplomats job is never done, their daily work accomplishes countless negotiation points each day; forget the fact that the art of diplomacy being practiced by El Baradei with Iran is wholly intended to avoid a military confrontation with Iran at all costs. One cost of this avoidance? A nuclear Iran.

El Baradei’s further advice to belligerents itching for a fight:

“If the parties involved in the dossier of Iran's nuclear program hold talks around a table, the result will be better than speaking about who should use force against Iran.”

Lunch included.

El Baradei also used Iran’s neighbor, Iraq as a lesson; citing that it is an example in which “innocent people are killed every day and thus, all parties should be careful when they speak about use of force.”

For so many like El Baradei, the “lesson” is the innocents killed daily. The irony that those he negotiates with are very responsible for the deaths of the innocents escapes the professional diplomat

“He’s naïve and idiosyncratic and that amounts to being dangerous. His argument for years was that he could talk Iran out of being a nuclear threat. Then it was, ‘O.K., we’ll just let them experiment.’ Now it’s, ‘you’re never going to get them to give up.” – John Bolton referring to Mohamed El Baradei

Not so secret war

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Iran Proffers Peace with Severe Retaliation

Friday during expressions of love for all mankind Provisional Tehran Friday Prayer Leader Ayatollah Mohammad Emami Kashani during the weekly Friday Sermon said of the U.S. in Iraq:

‘"The only important point for the US statesmen is that 4,000 US soldiers have got killed in Iraq, not caring a bit about the huge number of the innocent Iraqis that have got killed at home due to the US arrogant policies."’

Today, in the interest of peace and reconciliation, President of the Islamic Republic of Iran Mahmoud Ahmadinejad offered these dove-like remarks:

'"They realize that if they make such a mistake the retaliation of Iran would be severe and they will repent. All people know they cannot strike us. Iran is capable of defending itself. It is a strong country. Superpowers cannot prevent us from owning this energy."'

'“We in the Persian Gulf are faced by difficulties and enemies. Those do not want the region to live in safety ... peace can be achieved by getting rid of these forces. They intervene in the region and make it insecure. They claim that lack of security is the reason for their presence (but) the problem is the intervention of foreign powers."'

'"They know that their plans have failed in Iraq, their vision is wrong. As long as you are plotting against the Iraqi people, failure will be there day after day."'

We love you too Momo! Sounds like we’re almost there…

So, how go negotiations with the nation that is ready to talk?

The suspension of uranium enrichment would be unacceptable as a precondition to talks…Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad-Ali Hosseini said:

'"Iran will accept no precondition. The idea can be discussed, if it causes no illegal limitation for Iran's legal activities."'

Further expressing the reality we in the West wish to ignore; Minister of Defense Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar said the following:

'"The wrong and unilateral strategy pursued by the enemies of Iran made Iranian scholars determined to attain self-sufficiency."'

One of the summations by the IRNA news source of the Defense Ministers statements:

“Domestic unity and Islamic solidarity as well as attention to scientific issues will bring about a big change in the world, adding that the global arrogance is afraid of development of Muslim nations.”

“He noted that the westerners copied the Islamic knowledge and then misused the sciences against the Muslim nations.”

It all boils down to the West’s need for the Iranian technology:

"The West chants mottos such as 'human rights and knowledge has has no border' in order to make use of knowledge and capabilities of Iranian talented people."

Remember, next time some neo whatever says Iran is a danger…

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Iran - Overture, Respect and Pragmatism

The New York Times is not alone in this "analytical," assessment (italics mine):

“Administration officials insisted Wednesday that the new overtures, including an agreement to join Iran and Syria in talks on Iraq, did not mean there had been a change in policy. “There is no crack,” the White House spokesman, Tony Snow, said. “A number of people have been characterizing U.S. participation in a regional meeting as a change in policy; it is nothing of the sort.”

“But foreign policy experts, administration critics on Capitol Hill and former diplomats disagreed, saying the administration appeared to have recognized the extent to which it had tied its own hands by insisting on talking only to friends. Even Ms. Rice had called the opening to Tehran and Damascus a “diplomatic initiative.”’

How “diplomatic.” They are listed as experts, critics and diplomats; is it possible they might all more appropriately be referenced as “critics?” Aren’t many of the players adherents of “realpolitik,” pooh poohers from the get go, that do not think any way other than how it has always been done is apostasy? The “pragmatism,” in the title and their minds is that the practical approach to problems is the only way. They’ve been vindicated for their unbending stance of the past 50 years in only six; not exactly time for truly trying a different approach.

Diplomats have a different definition of “success,” and can be defined through their regular, daily accomplishments.

Experts are considered “experts” in their field, but aren’t “experts,” ever wrong? The “intelligence” prior to 9/11 and the Iraq theater hardly brought to mind the term “expert.” If it was, it was more in disbelief; ‘these are our “experts?”

Administration critics are just that, critics, regardless of whether or not the criticism is warranted? This has been the way of the nation since roughly January 2001.

Obviously people are going to have different points of view. But in this media age, cannot we, the readers hope for something a little different in the way of analysis? The administration has been on an experiment from the beginning; addressing the “enemy” in different terms than we have been used to. You will not be rewarded for making threats, being intransigent, or bullying; we have nothing to say to you in the diplomatese you are familiar with. Unfortunately, those that are well versed in diplomatese were not and are not interested in learning a new language.

What is a carrot to Iran or North Korea? What is a “deal-maker” to them? If the old way of doing things is so “on target,” why are we dealing with situations that had previously been resolved?

Said Daniel P. Serwer:

“The question isn’t whether the axis of evil is dead; it’s alive as it was yesterday,”

And only by doing as we have done previously, can we expect to be able to relax and ignore the problem for another five to ten years. Odd that we're dealing with the problem again, but not to "professionals."

Doing things the same way, yet expecting different results is what many seem to expect of our leadership. Doing things the same way as the “experts,” “critics,” and “diplomats,” and getting the same result is acceptable and the way of the world isn’t any better. But try to teach an old dog a new trick and you’ll see what I mean.

There is pretty much only one tried and true way to reach the right time to speak, but we’re not on our way there as the political will is non-existent. The “intellectual elite,” believes in their own greatness and wisdom and lacks the nerve and interest in even considering this nation and ideals worth defending or surviving.

___________

Key definitions to keep in mind when dealing with negotiations:

Action

Accomplish

Justice

“In Middle East, Third Way is a Myth”

"Critical Phase in Iran Stand-off"

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Iran - When Can We Talk?

According to The Washington Times:

“The United States said yesterday it would attend a pair of Iraqi-sponsored regional conferences in Baghdad over the next two months that will also be attended by archfoes Syria and Iran.”

This has been agreed to and attendance is considered giving assistance to the Iraqi government’s initiative for talks. This is acceptable to a point and is “diplomacy” in “action.”

When is the right time for talks with the likes of Iran? First, a few facts from the CIA:

Economic Overview: Iran's economy is marked by a bloated, inefficient state sector, over reliance on the oil sector, and statist policies that create major distortions throughout. Most economic activity is controlled by the state. Private sector activity is typically small-scale - workshops, farming, and services. President Mahmud AHMADI-NEJAD has continued to follow the market reform plans of former President RAFSANJANI, with limited progress. Relatively high oil prices in recent years have enabled Iran to amass nearly $60 billion in foreign exchange reserves, but have not eased economic hardships such as high unemployment and inflation. The proportion of the economy devoted to the development of weapons of mass destruction remains a contentious issue with leading Western nations.

Natural Resources: petroleum, natural gas, coal, chromium, copper, iron ore, lead, manganese, zinc, sulfur

Electricity - Production: 155.7 billion kWh (2004)

Electricity - consumption: 145.1 billion kWh

Electricity - exports: 1.837 billion kWh (2004)

Electricity - imports: 2.17 billion kWh (2004)

Oil - production: 3.979 million bbl/day (2005 est.)

Oil - consumption: 1.51 million bbl/day (2004 est.)

Oil - exports: 2.5 million bbl/day (2004 est.)

Natural gas - production: 83.9 billion cu m (2004 est.)

Natural gas - consumption: 85.54 billion cu m (2004 est.)

Natural gas - exports: 3.56 billion cu m (2004 est.)

Natural gas - imports: 5.2 billion cu m (2004 est.)

To name a few coastal areas of strategic importance:

Bushehr; Larak Island due to it’s proximity to the Straight of Hormuz and is a major point for oil export; Bandar Abbas; Port at Bandar-e Lengeh; JAM Complex – Asalouyeh

Simply put, use the worlds most powerful and unmatched navy into the Persian Gulf and use it to tweak a few statistics to:

Electricity - Production: 0 kWh (2007)

Electricity - exports: 0 kWh (2007)

Electricity - imports: 0 kWh (2007)

Oil - production: 0 bbl/day (2007 est.)

Oil - consumption: 1.51 million bbl/day (2007 est.)

Oil - exports: 0 bbl/day (2007 est.)

Natural gas - production: 0 cu m (2007 est.)

Natural gas - consumption: 85.54 billion cu m (2007 est.)

Natural gas - exports: 0 cu m (2007 est.)

Natural gas - imports: 0 cu m (2007 est.)

NOW we can talk!

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Sad Indeed – Only U.S. Hawks Can Save Ahmadinejad Now

From The Guardian, one of England’s many tabloids, we have an article regarding the unpopularity of Mahmoud “Momo” Ahmadinejad.

According to the author, Ali Ansari:

(Ahmadinejad) “seems to be reaping the rewards of unfulfilled promises bestowed with little attention to economic realities.”

The article itself touches on economic realities that Momo ignored, as well as his stance in the face of the “Great Satan’s” bullying. The piece does not say anything of the like, but it may as well.

Bottom line is that the only thing that might save Momo, is the Hawks in the U.S. government:

“There can be little doubt that US hawks will interpret recent events as proof that pressure works, and that any more pressure will encourage the hawks further. Yet the reality is that while Ahmadinejad has been his own worst enemy, the US hawks are his best friends. Ahmadinejad's demise, if it comes, will have less to do with the international environment and more with his own political incompetence. There is little doubt that it will take more than a cosmetic change to get Washington to listen to Iran. But the real question mark, as the Baker-Hamilton commission found to its cost, is whether Washington is inclined to listen at all.”

“Yet the reality…..” It must be so refreshing to recognize reality, when so many others cannot. So, ultimately it is all propaganda on both sides, Iran didn’t really work on “peaceful nukes” in secret (or it doesn’t matter) and the U.S. is the real problem. If we would only play along with the rest of the diplomatic elite and just chat, we can all just forget about it and it will go away."

If only Bush and the American public in general didn’t exist, the EU-3 would surely have gotten it across to the Iranians that going the nuke route is a no no, by giving them the nukes based upon promises from those that don’t keep them.

I love Great Britain, I’m an Anglophile, however, the country that gave the world Neville Chamberlain and the “Peace of Paper,” has chosen to believe that Bush and the U.S. is the enemy, is becoming weaker by the day in it’s recognition of just what it is we are all facing. In ’38 it was Czechoslovakia the British government was willing to sacrifice; today with the big bogeyman being the entirely too powerful U.S., the lamb offered is Israel.

Although the article only turns to the “Hawks” at its end, the comments continue on in that vane (italics mine):

Comment from Instinct

“The bottom line is that those of us who persist in believing in democracy must recognise its limitations. When you have nations like the US and Iran, each of whose populations is willing to believe demonic propaganda about the other, a democratic system will throw up leaders who rightly see their own interest lying in antagonising and even attacking the other country.”

“Unfortunately, the notion that democracy is inextricably bound up with a peaceful form of life is fanciful. As we can see all too clearly in Iraq. It will be peaceful only if the electors are peaceful and the electors in the US appear to be willing to believe in all sorts of warlike action, so they deserve a president like Bush. And may well elect another.”

Comment from Parsian:

"Ahmadinejad and Bush are like two peas in a pod for the following reasons.

1. They are religious fanatics.
2. They do not understand foreign policy.
3. They are very unpopular outside their own country and each has less than 30% support at home.
4. They are arrogant, obstinate and confrontational.
5. They do not listen to reason and make decisions against sound advice. Many a times, their decisions are detrimental to their own country.
6. Only a war between the USA and Iran will help them regain their initial popularity rating of 60% or so.

Therefore, do not be surprised if the US or the US / Israel attack Iran. It would be a ‘blessing” in disguise for Ahmadinejad and Bush."

I wish we could let you all go down on your own, but that wouldn’t serve our interests or the worlds.

Sad indeed, that we are the only ones that believe “demonic propaganda,” unlike our friends with their “sage” advice across the pond, appear to know believe they know better.

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